Tag: Putin

Ukraine War: Everyone loses but Putin

Zelensky’s statement accepting Ukraine neutrality and Russia’s that it is militarily focused on eastern Ukraine and not Kiev, signal there will be a negotiated end to the fighting involving a Ukrainian pledge not to join NATO, an in-place military armistice, and de facto partition of Ukraine between its Russian and Ukrainian speaking populations. Results:

Ukraine—reduced standards of living, damaged national identity, greater oligarchic corrupt control and weakened democracy.

The West and Russia—diminished trade and economic growth, long-term political and economic hostility, war as a constant background threat.

Russian people—reduced standard of living and cultural isolation.

American people—escalating military spending and out-of-control inflation.

Biden will look like a loser, Zelensky a blowhard, and Putin a winner.

If Biden, NATO, and Zelensky had offered to negotiate with Putin based on: Ukraine not joining NATO; internationally monitored referendum in Crimea; greater autonomy for the Donbass—they might have avoided war, and certainly gotten more than now.

Putin’s war achieved his goal of stopping NATO from reaching Russia’s border and creating a buffer zone in eastern Ukraine, as he did in Georgia. He will get away with targeting civilians, as Yeltsin and Putin did in Chechnya, because he won. He may have dreams of restoring Russia as an empire and regional power, but that was not his objective invading Ukraine. American mainstream media lied and built war hysteria, and Americans who fell for it should reflect. The only thing that can stop a negotiated settlement favorable to Putin is a recklessly aggressive move by Biden, such as acting on his desire to remove Putin from office.

Ukraine War

NATO rejects Putin’s reasonable demand that Ukraine declare neutrality. While Ukraine has the right to its own foreign policy, it can’t use its territory as a base for NATO threats against Russia. Ukraine is geopolitically in the heart of wealthy industrialized and agricultural Eurasia, between the Western bloc and Russia and China. There will likely be no clear military victory. Even if political compromise is reached, the U.S. and Russia are committed to a protracted conflict over Eastern Europe, periodically exploding into war.

NATO’s military expansion eastward left Russia no good defensive options—US military intervention in Kosovo; Baltic State membership on Russia’s borders; meddling in the replacement of an elected pro-Russia oligarch; plans to bring Ukraine into NATO. Russian aggression developed simultaneously—in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea, the Donbass. NATO, as the more powerful and direct threat, is the primary aggressor, with Russia reacting.

Putin, an autocratic oligarch, holds a parallel, contradictory position of restoring the Russian Empire. denial of Ukraine’s existence as a nation, and exaggeration of extreme right influence. Confusion on whether his goals are defensive or offensive united Europe against him. It leaves Russian troops and people unprepared ideologically and morally for the casualties and brutality of a war on cities.

The Russian and Ukrainian people need a negotiated settlement involving: a neutral Ukraine; a Russia-Ukraine non-aggression pact and mutually beneficial trade agreement; complete Russian military withdrawal; self-determination for Crimea; increased autonomy for the Donbass within Ukraine; Eastern European security treaties, independent of NATO, with both sides. Neither the U.S. nor Russia would allow that.

Impact: Ukraine—dislocation, emigration, and trauma; Russia—hardship and repression; global food and oil shortages; U.S.—unprecedented inflation

Oppose war hysteria. Our conflict is at home, the intensifying class struggle and fight against Republican neofascist rule.